But we’re far from the end state. Batteries, especially utility-scale storage assets, are still largely on the sidelines. And the opportunities for smart operators, particularly those learning fast, are still very real.
First Stabilisation Wave: Aggregated Renewables
Around 490 MW of new reserve capacity has entered the Estonian market since February 2025, much of it likely from virtual power plants aggregating solar and wind assets. This influx has helped stabilize the market, reducing the extreme price swings seen earlier in the year.
Still, weather and PV output continue to drive short-term pricing. While solar helps flatten prices during the day, volatility remains, especially during evening peaks or grid imbalances.
Batteries Still to Come — But Smart Operators Are Already Winning
Despite this apparent stabilisation, Smartecon’s own client data tells a more nuanced story.
Between May and July, even as reserve market prices declined, one of our storage system clients doubled their monthly earnings from TSO activations. This is not due to market growth — in fact, volumes remained broadly consistent — but rather due to improved operational decisions and trading strategy.
This proves a crucial point: while the market matures, operators who learn, adapt, and optimize still stand to gain significantly. The client improved reaction precision, maximized valid activation windows, and began anticipating pricing windows more effectively.
Autumn and Winter: The Real Test Begins
Looking ahead, we expect continued opportunity — but growing complexity. As PV output declines and demand variability increases, price volatility may return. Storage and flexibility will be more valuable than ever.
Assets already in the market, with operational experience and data, will be best positioned. The next six months will reward those with not just capacity, but capability.
